At the 2025 The Hospitality Show held in Denver earlier this week, Greg Kennealey, CEO of Peregrine Hospitality, moderated the discussion Navigating Global Currents: Strategic Insights for Hospitality Leaders. The keynote speaker was Ozan Özkural, founder and managing partner of Tanto Capital Partners, a boutique investment bank headquartered in London.
Özkural noted that hospitality leaders must think like strategists, monitoring global trends and events, because global systems are interconnected, and today’s hospitality landscape must be framed within that broader context.
He pointed out that it is a rapidly changing world, which requires regular adjustment and rethinking strategies. “We live in an era where assumptions age faster than before. What was impossible yesterday becomes inevitable tomorrow, and in this era of volatility, leaders have to understand that they have to operate under this world of constant recalibration all the time,” said Özkural.
He added that the hotel industry is a barometer for economic shifts. “Hospitality is the human face of market cycles, and sometimes walking through a hotel lobby can tell you so much more about the real-world economy.”
Big Picture World View
Özkural referred to some historical events, which he labeled as ‘wake up calls,’ that he says will have far-reaching implications for the hospitality industry, as it is susceptible to geopolitical transformations. “We are no longer operating in a cycle but rather a transition,” said Özkural. Some of these include the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as the Middle East, and he noted that the old-post-World War II world order is eroding. Specifically, that era was built on trust, stability and U.S.-led globalization, but a new normal is grounded in shifting negotiations and relationships.
“The reality is, there is only one strategic battle that matters, and that is the U.S. versus China,” he said.
Özkural stated that today’s world economy is transactional in nature, with countries increasingly using economic relationships as tools of power. Using the example of the US and Nippon steel merger, Özkural said that the world is in a state of weaponed interdependence, with countries so economically interconnected so as to produce a state of market volatility.
He also warned that we are in a new financial era: long-term debt is about to get more expensive, such as what is being seen in Japan’s bond market. Japan tried to issue 20-year and 40-year bonds, but demand fell short, and yields were the highest since 1999. He made the point that investors are now more comfortable with shorter-term debt, signaling a loss of confidence in long-term debt as a safe investment. “This underlines the fact that long term debt as an asset class is no longer feasible,” he said.
He went on to talk about the global impact of debt, which will no longer be a safe way to finance growth. “This will mean cost of debt, cost of equity, and therefore cost of capital is going to go up no matter what the Fed does, no matter what ECB does, no matter what central banks do, it just will not persist. And there's a bunch of companies out there that haven't yet realized that their business models are no longer feasible in this brave new world.”
Özkural added that cheap credit is gone, with inflation is now systemic, and many rising asset prices are driven by inflation. “The business models that were fueled by cheap credit growth are no longer going to be feasible. So, this point is that the investors out in the world, whether you're a hospitality investor, a hedge fund manager, a private equity manager, effectively, we are finding it very difficult to price all the complexity that exists out there.”
Examples of Gray Swan Events
Unlike a black swan event, which is an unforeseen event, a gray event is predictable but still, unlikely, or, as he calls them, the ‘known unknowns.’ Both can, however, have negative consequences on the market. Özkural relayed three such recent gray swan events:
- First was the Chinese AI company, Deep Seek, that said it would do what Open AI does for 1/5 of the price; the stock market consequently lost a trillion dollars.
- Second was proposed legislation called AI diffusion rules, with U.S. legislation restricting foreign access to US chip technologies. It did not pass but it could have affected the market by multi- trillion dollars.
- Third was section 889 of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ that proposed U.S. law would tax investors differently based on how their country would ‘play ball’ with the U.S., something that Özkural said would have resulted in global markets to end as we know it.
All of these were gray swans that could have negatively affected the markets but were ignored by investors. Therefore, hospitality leaders need to pay attention and anticipate these types of events.
Takeaways
Özkural elucidated the takeaways from the first part of his speech. “So, we need a new mindset for this new moment: Be ruthlessly pragmatic, pragmatic enough to abandon failing models. Be dynamic, dynamic enough to understand change in courage so you can take a seat at the table when the table is being set, not after, and have clarity, clarity enough on what matters to you, so that you can avoid the confusion and the fog of chaos when things really become heated,” he said.
Ruthless Pragmatism
Leaders should let go of the old mindset, as the rules are constantly changing. Özkural said, “We are now firmly in an era of ruthless pragmatism. Ruthless pragmatism in that ideological certainty is a liability, and pragmatism beats dogma,” meaning that traditional rules no longer apply. Therefore, hospitality leaders need to be adaptable, employ new strategies, and need to be “…data led, not politically or emotionally bound.”
Dynamism
Because the world contains so many interconnected and complex events, leaders need to embrace non-linear thinking, as the industry faces many fast-moving disruptions. “Dynamism is the only true hedge you're ever going to have. The days of linear thinking are obsolete and it pays to think like a geopolitical entrepreneur trying to understand the future where the wind will blow from for how long, for how hard, so that you can understand the complexity that's facing you, so you can benefit from the volatility that is going to persist,” Özkural explained.
Strategic Clarity
Because the future is unpredictable, leaders should not try to expend energy on the unknown. Rather, Özkural advised, “Focus on strategic clarity rather than certainty, because chasing certainty could be the most expensive decision you ever make.” He references an Einstein quote: “You want to be looking at the direction you go, otherwise you’re going to go where you look,” which he said means to understand what is non-negotiable. “And this is where true leadership, leadership of courage and narrative come into play.”
Resilience
In his opinion, resilience in several key areas is the name of the game: liquidity resilience, investment resilience, and strategic asset focus, by investing deliberately into areas like AI.
Özkural also mentioned that luxury brands are outperforming mid-sized brands. because “luxury at hospitality is about experience. Everything else is a product which is commoditized.” On the flip side, the middle and lower ends of the market face more challenges due to rising costs and labor challenges.
“Ultimately, this is a people’s business,” he reminded the crowd, emphasizing that investing in staff, service, and guest experience will determine who will thrive in these uncertain times. Operators who understand changing consumer preferences can gain a competitive edge. Despite the challenges, he remained optimistic: “I do really believe that there is an inbuilt resilience in this market, because at some stage, everyone is going to want to travel. Travel is not going to end. Now, it may go through cycles, sure, but it's not going to end.”
Role of Technology/AI
Özkural spoke of the role of technology in the hotel business, saying that it is “..the primary driver. I think in hospitality, it is a human business, and I think technology is really important to try to free up as much time as possible of people that need to deal with other people and guests, and that's where the real value lies.” However, the ultimate measure of success, he stressed, is the happiness of guests, which is directly linked to the satisfaction and autonomy of staff, particularly general managers. “I would use tech, really, to empower the people; that will make a difference. And I think technology is a tool, not the purpose,” he added.
Going back to his point about having strategic clarity, Özkural said that the use of Ai and technology should be used strategically, rather than impulsively.
Embrace the Discomfort
Özkural is optimistic about the future of hospitality, saying that travel is not going to stop, and so long as leaders stay on their A game, the industry will thrive. Still, he said that effective leaders should be willing to experience a bit of discomfort and create environments where disagreements are tolerated. “I love having credible arguments on the team. That is the only way to escape confirmation bias, right?” he asked. “This is why leadership is critical to set the tone that you can have those disagreements. And to understand that disagreements ultimately result in better decision making, which ultimately results in everyone being happier.”
Key Trends to Watch
Özkural identified four key pillars that will shape the coming years in hospitality: social, economic, geopolitical, and technological.
On the social front, Özkural warned of rising anxiety among young and white-collar professionals, noting “The moment that you lose the capacity to dream, you’re in trouble.”
Despite challenges, he remained optimistic about the economy: “If you ever want to feel good about what’s happening in the U.S. economy, travel out, come back in; in the developed world in particular, this country will continue to do well, because this is the only country where you can dream big.”
On the geopolitical front, he predicted ‘complex waters,’ with continued Middle East volatility, rising U.S.-China competition in semiconductors and quantum computing, and emerging concerns over food security and water security. Regarding technology, Özkural stressed the continued progress of innovation but called for careful oversight, especially around AI.
If anyone remembers one thing out of this conversation around technology is to please monitor the progress around quantum computing, because quantum computing is a complex idea. It's not there yet, but it is worth analyzing and following, because it is going to be the game changer that's going to change a lot of things whenever it becomes real, which I suspect is the next three to five years.”